Technical perspective: By the end of the decade, we will deliver universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum computing
By Dr. Harry Buhrman, Chief Scientist for Algorithms and Innovation, and Dr. Chris Langer, Fellow
This week, we confirm what has been implied by the rapid pace of our recent technical progress as we reveal a major acceleration in our hardware road map. By the end of the decade, our accelerated hardware roadmap will deliver a fully fault-tolerant and universal quantum computer capable of executing millions of operations on hundreds of logical qubits.
The next major milestone on our accelerated roadmap is Quantinuum Helios™, Powered by Honeywell, a device that will definitively push beyond classical capabilities in 2025. That sets us on a path to our fifth-generation system, Quantinuum Apollo™, a machine that delivers scientific advantage and a commercial tipping point this decade.
What is Apollo?
We are committed to continually advancing the capabilities of our hardware over prior generations, and Apollo makes good on that promise. It will offer:
- thousands of physical qubits
- physical error rates less than 10-4
- All of our most competitive features: all-to-all connectivity, low crosstalk, mid-circuit measurement and qubit re-use
- Conditional logic
- Real-time classical co-compute
- Physical variable angle 1 qubit and 2 qubit gates
- Hundreds of logical qubits
- Logical error rates better than 10-6 with analysis based on recent literature estimating as low as 10-10
By leveraging our all-to-all connectivity and low error rates, we expect to enjoy significant efficiency gains in terms of fault-tolerance, including single-shot error correction (which saves time) and high-rate and high-distance Quantum Error Correction (QEC) codes (which mean more logical qubits, with stronger error correction capabilities, can be made from a smaller number of physical qubits).
Studies of several efficient QEC codes already suggest we can enjoy logical error rates much lower than our target 10-6 – we may even be able to reach 10-10, which enables exploration of even more complex problems of both industrial and scientific interest.
Error correcting code exploration is only just beginning – we anticipate discoveries of even more efficient codes. As new codes are developed, Apollo will be able to accommodate them, thanks to our flexible high-fidelity architecture. The bottom line is that Apollo promises fault-tolerant quantum advantage sooner, with fewer resources.
Like all our computers, Apollo is based on the quantum charged coupled device (QCCD) architecture. Here, each qubit’s information is stored in the atomic states of a single ion. Laser beams are applied to the qubits to perform operations such as gates, initialization, and measurement. The lasers are applied to individual qubits or co-located qubit pairs in dedicated operation zones. Qubits are held in place using electromagnetic fields generated by our ion trap chip. We move the qubits around in space by dynamically changing the voltages applied to the chip. Through an alternating sequence of qubit rearrangements via movement followed by quantum operations, arbitrary circuits with arbitrary connectivity can be executed.
The ion trap chip in Apollo will host a 2D array of trapping locations. It will be fabricated using standard CMOS processing technology and controlled using standard CMOS electronics. The 2D grid architecture enables fast and scalable qubit rearrangement and quantum operations – a critical competitive advantage. The Apollo architecture is scalable to the significantly larger systems we plan to deliver in the next decade.
What is Apollo good for?
Apollo’s scaling of very stable physical qubits and native high-fidelity gates, together with our advanced error correcting and fault tolerant techniques will establish a quantum computer that can perform tasks that do not run (efficiently) on any classical computer. We already had a first glimpse of this in our recent work sampling the output of random quantum circuits on H2, where we performed 100x better than competitors who performed the same task while using 30,000x less power than a classical supercomputer. But with Apollo we will travel into uncharted territory.
The flexibility to use either thousands of qubits for shorter computations (up to 10k gates) or hundreds of qubits for longer computations (from 1 million to 1 billion gates) make Apollo a versatile machine with unprecedented quantum computational power. We expect the first application areas will be in scientific discovery; particularly the simulation of quantum systems. While this may sound academic, this is how all new material discovery begins and its value should not be understated. This era will lead to discoveries in materials science, high-temperature superconductivity, complex magnetic systems, phase transitions, and high energy physics, among other things.
In general, Apollo will advance the field of physics to new heights while we start to see the first glimmers of distinct progress in chemistry and biology. For some of these applications, users will employ Apollo in a mode where it offers thousands of qubits for relatively short computations; e.g. exploring the magnetism of materials. At other times, users may want to employ significantly longer computations for applications like chemistry or topological data analysis.
But there is more on the horizon. Carefully crafted AI models that interact seamlessly with Apollo will be able to squeeze all the “quantum juice” out and generate data that was hitherto unavailable to mankind. We anticipate using this data to further the field of AI itself, as it can be used as training data.
The era of scientific (quantum) discovery and exploration will inevitably lead to commercial value. Apollo will be the centerpiece of this commercial tipping point where use-cases will build on the value of scientific discovery and support highly innovative commercially viable products.
Very interestingly, we will uncover applications that we are currently unaware of. As is always the case with disruptive new technology, Apollo will run currently unknown use-cases and applications that will make perfect sense once we see them. We are eager to co-develop these with our customers in our unique co-creation program.
How do we get there?
Today, System Model H2 is our most advanced commercial quantum computer, providing 56 physical qubits with physical two-qubit gate errors less than 10-3. System Model H2, like all our systems, is based on the QCCD architecture.
Starting from where we are today, our roadmap progresses through two additional machines prior to Apollo. The Quantinuum Helios™ system, which we are releasing in 2025, will offer around 100 physical qubits with two-qubit gate errors less than 5x10-4. In addition to expanded qubit count and better errors, Helios makes two departures from H2. First, Helios will use 137Ba+ qubits in contrast to the 171Yb+ qubits used in our H1 and H2 systems. This change enables lower two-qubit gate errors and less complex laser systems with lower cost. Second, for the first time in a commercial system, Helios will use junction-based qubit routing. The result will be a “twice-as-good" system: Helios will offer roughly 2x more qubits with 2x lower two-qubit gate errors while operating more than 2x faster than our 56-qubit H2 system.
After Helios we will introduce Quantinuum Sol™, our first commercially available 2D-grid-based quantum computer. Sol will offer hundreds of physical qubits with two-qubit gate errors less than 2x10-4, operating approximately 2x faster than Helios. Sol being a fully 2D-grid architecture is the scalability launching point for the significant size increase planned for Apollo.
Opportunity for early value creation discovery in Helios and Sol
Thanks to Sol’s low error rates, users will be able to execute circuits with up to 10,000 quantum operations. The usefulness of Helios and Sol may be extended with a combination of quantum error detection (QED) and quantum error mitigation (QEM). For example, the [[k+2, k, 2]] iceberg code is a light-weight QED code that encodes k+2 physical qubits into k logical qubits and only uses an additional 2 ancilla qubits. This low-overhead code is well-suited for Helios and Sol because it offers the non-Clifford variable angle entangling ZZ-gate directly without the overhead of magic state distillation. The errors Iceberg fails to detect are already ~10x lower than our physical errors, and by applying a modest run-time overhead to discard detected failures, the effective error in the computation can be further reduced. Combining QED with QEM, a ~10x reduction in the effective error may be possible while maintaining run-time overhead at modest levels and below that of full-blown QEC.
Why accelerate our roadmap now?
Our new roadmap is an acceleration over what we were previously planning. The benefits of this are obvious: Apollo brings the commercial tipping point sooner than we previously thought possible. This acceleration is made possible by a set of recent breakthroughs.
First, we solved the “wiring problem”: we demonstrated that trap chip control is scalable using our novel center-to-left-right (C2LR) protocol and broadcasting shared control signals to multiple electrodes. This demonstration of qubit rearrangement in a 2D geometry marks the most advanced ion trap built, containing approximately 40 junctions. This trap was deployed to 3 different testbeds in 2 different cities and operated with 2 different collections of dual-ion-species, and all 3 cases were a success. These demonstrations showed that the footprint of the most complex parts of the trap control stay constant as the number of qubits scales up. This gives us the confidence that Sol, with approximately 100 junctions, will be a success.
Second, we continue to reduce our two-qubit physical gate errors. Today, H1 and H2 have two-qubit gate errors less than 1x10-3 across all pairs of qubits. This is the best in the industry and is a key ingredient in our record >2 million quantum volume. Our systems are the most benchmarked in the industry, and we stand by our data - making it all publicly available. Recently, we observed an 8x10-4 two-qubit gate error in our Helios development test stand in 137Ba+, and we’ve seen even better error rates in other testbeds. We are well on the path to meeting the 5x10-4 spec in Helios next year.
Third, the all-to-all connectivity offered by our systems enables highly efficient QEC codes. In Microsoft’s recent demonstration, our H2 system with 56 physical qubits was used to generate 12 logical qubits at distance 4. This work demonstrated several experiments, including repeated rounds of error correction where the error in the final result was ~10x lower than the physical circuit baseline.
In conclusion, through a combination of advances in hardware readiness and QEC, we have line-of-sight to Apollo by the end of the decade, a fully fault-tolerant quantum advantaged machine. This will be a commercial tipping point: ushering in an era of scientific discovery in physics, materials, chemistry, and more. Along the way, users will have the opportunity to discover new enabling use cases through quantum error detection and mitigation in Helios and Sol.
Quantinuum has the best quantum computers today and is on the path to offering fault-tolerant useful quantum computation by the end of the decade.
About Quantinuum
Quantinuum, the world’s largest integrated quantum company, pioneers powerful quantum computers and advanced software solutions. Quantinuum’s technology drives breakthroughs in materials discovery, cybersecurity, and next-gen quantum AI. With over 500 employees, including 370+ scientists and engineers, Quantinuum leads the quantum computing revolution across continents.
A team from Quantinuum and the University of Freiburg found that quantum computers outperform classical for a workhorse calculation often used in accelerators like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN.
Quantinuum’s Ifan Williams worked with the University of Freiburg’s Mathieu Pellen to tackle a pernicious problem in accelerator physics: calculating “cross sections”. Together, they developed a general, scalable approach to calculating cross sections that offers a quadratic speed-up compared to its classical counterpart.
A “cross-section” relates to the probability of a certain interaction happening. Scientists who do experiments in particle accelerators compare real measurements with theoretical cross-section calculations (predictions), using the agreement (or disagreement) to reason about the nature of our universe.
Generally, scientists run Monte Carlo simulations to make their theoretical predictions. Monte Carlo simulations are currently the biggest computational bottleneck in experimental high-energy physics (HEP), costing enormous CPU resources, which will only grow larger as new experiments come online.
It’s hard to put a specific number on exactly how costly calculations like this are, but we can say that probing fundamental physics at the LHC probably uses roughly 10 billion CPUH/year for data treatment, simulations, and theory predictions. Knowing that the theory predictions represent approximately 15-25% of this total, putting even a 10% dent in this number would be a massive change.
The collaborators used Quantinuum’s Quantum Monte Carlo integration (QMCI) engine to solve the same problem. Their work is the first published general methodology for performing cross-section calculations in HEP using quantum integration.
Importantly, the team’s methodology is potentially extendable to the problem sizes needed for real-world HEP cross-section calculations (currently done classically). Overall, this work establishes a solid foundation for performing such computations on a quantum computer in the future.
The Large Hadron Collider, the world’s biggest particle accelerator, generates a billion collisions each second, far more data than can be computationally analyzed. Planned future experiments are expected to generate even more. Quantum computers are also accelerating. Quantinuum’s latest H2 System became the highest performing commercially available system in the world when it was launched. When it was upgraded in 2024, it became the first quantum computer that cannot be exactly simulated by any classical computer. Our next generation Helios, on schedule to launch in 2025, will encode at least a trillion times more information than the H2—this is the power of exponential growth.
We can’t wait to see what’s next with quantum computing and high-energy physics.
The Quantinuum team is looking forward to participating in this year’s SCAsia conference from March 10th – 13th in Singapore. Meet our team at Booth B2 to discover how Quantinuum is bridging the gap between quantum computing and high-performance compute with leading industry partners.
Our team will be participating in workshops and presenting at the keynote and plenary sessions to showcase our quantum computing technologies. Join us at the below sessions:
Monday, March 10th, 1:30 – 2:30pm
Workshop: Accelerating Quantum Supercomputing: CUDA-Q Tutorial across Multiple Quantum Platforms
Location: Room P10 – Peony Jr 4512 (Level 4)
This workshop will explore the seamless integration of classical and quantum resources for quantum-accelerated supercomputing. Join Kentaro Yamamoto and Enrico Rinaldi, Lead R&D Scientists at Quantinuum, for an Introduction to our integrated full-stack for quantum computing, Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) for solving quantum chemistry problems, and a demonstration of a QPE algorithm with CUDA-Q on Quantinuum Systems. If you're interested in access to our quantum computers and emulator for use on the CUDA-Q platform, register here.
Tuesday, March 11th, 11:00 – 11:30pm
Keynote: Quantum Computing: A Transformative Force for Singapore's Regional Economy
Location: Melati Ballroom (Level 4)
Quantum Computing is no longer a distant promise; it has arrived and is poised to revolutionize several economies. Join our President and CEO, Dr. Rajeeb Hazra, to discover how Quantinuum’s approach to Quantum Generative AI is driving breakthroughs in applications which hold significant relevance for Singapore, in fields like chemistry, computational biology, and finance. Additionally, Raj will discuss the challenges and opportunities of adopting quantum solutions from both technical and business perspectives, emphasizing the importance of collaboration to build quantum applications that integrate the best of quantum and AI.
Tuesday, March 11th, 5:40 – 6:00pm
Industry Breakout Track: Transformative value of Quantum and AI: bringing meaningful insights for critical applications today
Location: Room L1 – Lotus Jr (Level 4)
The ability to solve classically intractable problems defines the transformative value of quantum computing, offering new tools to redefine industries and address complex humanity challenges. In this session with Dr. Elvira Shishenina, Senior Director of Strategic Initiatives, discover how Quantinuum’s hardware is leading the way in achieving early fault-tolerance, marking a significant step forward in computational capabilities. By integrating quantum technology with AI and high-performance computing, we are building systems designed to address real-world issues with efficiency, precision and scale. This approach empowers critical applications from hydrogen fuel cells and carbon capture to precision medicine, food security, and cybersecurity, providing meaningful insights at a commercial level today.
Wednesday, March 12th, 4:40 – 5:00pm
Hybrid Quantum Classical Computing Track: Quantifying Quantum Advantage with an End-to-End Quantum Algorithm for the Jones Polynomial
Location: Room O3 – Orchid Jr 4211-2 (Level 4)
Join Konstantinos Meichanetzidis, Head of Scientific Product Development, for this presentation on an end-to-end reconfigurable algorithmic pipeline for solving a famous problem in knot theory using a noisy digital quantum computer. Specifically, they estimate the value of the Jones polynomial at the fifth root of unity within additive error for any input link, i.e. a closed braid. This problem is DQC1-complete for Markov-closed braids and BQP-complete for Plat-closed braids, and we accommodate both versions of the problem. In their research, they demonstrate our quantum algorithm on Quantinuum’s H2 quantum computer and show the effect of problem-tailored error-mitigation techniques. Further, leveraging that the Jones polynomial is a link invariant, they construct an efficiently verifiable benchmark to characterize the effect of noise present in a given quantum processor. In parallel, they implement and benchmark the state-of-the-art tensor-network-based classical algorithms.The practical tools provided in the work presented will allow for precise resource estimation to identify near-term quantum advantage for a meaningful quantum-native problem in knot theory.
Thursday, March 13th, 11:00 – 11:30pm
Industry Plenary: Quantum Heuristics: From Worst Case to Practice
Location: Melati Ballroom (Level 4)
Which problems allow for a quantum speedup, and which do not? This question lies at the heart of quantum information processing. Providing a definitive answer is challenging, as it connects deeply to unresolved questions in complexity theory. To make progress, complexity theory relies on conjectures such as P≠NP and the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis, which suggest that for many computational problems, we have discovered algorithms that are asymptotically close to optimal in the worst case. In this talk, Professor Harry Buhrman, Chief Scientist for Algorithms and Innovation, will explore the landscape from both theoretical and practical perspectives. On the theoretical side, I will introduce the concept of “queasy instances”—problem instances that are quantum-easy but classically hard (classically queasy). On the practical side, I will discuss how these insights connect to advancements in quantum hardware development and co-design.
*All times in Singapore Standard Time
BY HARRY BUHRMAN
Quantum computing continues to push the boundaries of what is computationally possible. A new study by Marcello Benedetti, Harry Buhrman, and Jordi Weggemans introduces Complement Sampling, a problem that highlights a dramatic separation between quantum and classical sample complexity. This work provides a robust demonstration of quantum advantage in a way that is not only provable but also feasible on near-term quantum devices.
The Complement Sampling Problem
Imagine a universe of N = 2n elements, from which a subset S of size K is drawn uniformly at random. The challenge is to sample from the complement S̅ without explicitly knowing S, but having access to samples of S. Classically, solving this problem requires roughly K samples, as the best a classical algorithm can do is guess at random after observing only some of the elements of S.
To better understand this, consider a small example. Suppose N = 8, meaning our universe consists of the numbers {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7}. If a subset S of size K = 4 is drawn at random—say {1,3,5,7}—the goal is to sample from the complement S̅, which consists of {0,2,4,6}. A classical algorithm would need to collect and verify enough samples from S before it could infer what S̅ might be. However, a quantum algorithm can use a single superposition state over S (a quantum sample) to instantly generate a sample from S̅, eliminating the need for iterative searching.
Why This Matters: Quantum Advantage in Sample Complexity
Quantum advantage is often discussed in terms of computational speedups, such as those achieved by Shor’s algorithm for factoring large numbers. However, quantum resources provide advantages beyond time efficiency—they also affect how data is accessed, stored, and processed.
Complement Sampling fits into the category of sample complexity problems, where the goal is to minimize the number of samples needed to solve a problem. The authors prove that their quantum approach not only outperforms classical methods but does so in a way that is:
- Provable: It provides rigorous lower bounds on classical sample complexity, demonstrating an exponential separation.
- Verifiable: The correctness of the output of the sampler can be efficiently checked classically.
- NISQable: The quantum circuit required is shallow and feasible for Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices.
How the Quantum Algorithm Works
At its core, the quantum approach to Complement Sampling relies on the ability to perform a perfect swap between a subset S and its complement S̅. The method draws inspiration from a construction by Aaronson, Atia, and Susskind, which links state distinguishability to state swapping. The quantum algorithm:
- Uses a unitary transformation that maps the quantum sample |S⟩ to |S̅⟩ with high probability.
- For K = N/2, the algorithm works perfectly outputting an element from S̅ with probability 1.
- For other values of K, a probabilistic zero-error approach is used, ensuring correctness while reducing success probability.
This is made possible by quantum interference and superposition, allowing a quantum computer to manipulate distributions in ways that classical systems fundamentally cannot.
Classical Hardness and Cryptographic Implications
A crucial aspect of this work is its robustness. The authors prove that even for subsets generated using strong pseudorandom permutations, the problem remains hard for classical algorithms. This means that classical computers cannot efficiently solve Complement Sampling even with structured input distributions—an important consideration for real-world applications.
This robustness suggests potential applications in cryptography, where generating samples from complements could be useful in privacy-preserving protocols and quantum-secure verification methods.
Towards an Experimental Demonstration
Unlike some quantum advantage demonstrations that are difficult to verify classically (such as the random circuit sampling experiment), Complement Sampling is designed to be verifiable. The authors propose an interactive quantum versus classical game:
- A referee provides a quantum player with quantum samples from S.
- The player must return a sample from S̅
- A classical player, given the same number of classical samples, attempts to do the same.
While the classical player must resort to random guessing, the quantum player can leverage the swap algorithm to succeed with near certainty. Running such an experiment on NISQ hardware could serve as a practical demonstration of quantum advantage in a sample complexity setting.
Future Directions
This research raises exciting new questions:
- Can Complement Sampling be extended to more general probability distributions?
- Are there cryptographic protocols that can directly leverage this advantage?
- How well does the quantum algorithm perform in real-world noisy conditions?
With its blend of theoretical depth and experimental feasibility, Complement Sampling provides a compelling new frontier for demonstrating the power of quantum computing.
Conclusion
Complement Sampling represents one of the cleanest demonstrations of quantum advantage in a practical, verifiable, and NISQ-friendly setting. By leveraging quantum information processing in ways that classical computers fundamentally cannot, this work strengthens the case for near-term quantum technologies and their impact on computational complexity, cryptography, and beyond.
For those interested in the full details, the paper provides rigorous proofs, circuit designs, and further insights into the nature of quantum sample complexity. As quantum computing continues to evolve, Complement Sampling may serve as a cornerstone for future experimental demonstrations of quantum supremacy.
We have commenced work on the experiment – watch this space!